Friday, February 21, 2014

Planning 2014’s Taxes with Your 2013 Tax Return

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Taxes are one of your largest retirement expenses. Your 2013 federal income tax form is a guide to reducing those taxes in 2014. Before filing away the return for last year's taxes, take a few minutes to study it. A careful review of the return can point the way to opportunities for decreasing your taxes and increasing after-tax wealth.

Most of the opportunities for those in or near retirement to reduce income taxes are on the front page of the Form 1040. On the back page there are itemized deductions (mortgage interest, charitable contributions, medical expenses, and a few others) plus tax credits. These offer limited planning opportunities for most people. Also, the stealth taxes that increase the burden of many of those in or close to retirement are imposed on adjusted gross income (AGI) or modified adjusted gross income. AGI is the last line of the front page of Form 1040. Examples of stealth taxes based on AGI are the surtax on Medicare premiums, the new net investment income tax under Obamacare, taxes on Social Security benefits, the phaseout of personal exemptions, and the reduction in itemized expenses.

The best opportunities for reducing the special retiree taxes are to reduce gross income and thereby adjusted gross income. Consider these strategies.

Reduce investment income. Does your taxable investment income exceed spending needs? If so, seek ways to shelter the excess. Consider moving money from conservative income investments into deferred fixed annuities. You'll earn a similar yield, and the income will compound tax-deferred. Or you could contribute some of the money to a Roth IRA. You won't receive current tax benefits, but the income will compound tax-free and also be tax-free when you withdraw it, reducing your taxes now and in the future.

Stocks paying qualified dividends also are worth considering. These are more volatile than conservative income investments, but the ! dividends are subject only to a maximum 20% rate, plus most companies that pay dividends increase the dividends each year. This has been a popular sector of the stock markets, so you might want to defer this strategy until valuations are more attractive or carefully choose the stocks.

Consider tax-exempt bonds. Most states and localities are in decent financial shape and aren't likely to default on their bonds. But tax-exempt bonds declined sharply in 2013 because of rising interest rates and an overreaction to the bankruptcy filing of Detroit. In most tax brackets, you earn a higher after-tax return from highly-rated tax-exempts than from treasuries or even investment-grade corporate bonds. You can buy individual bonds, mutual funds, or closed-end funds to capture the opportunity.

Manage your taxable investments. Reviewing your portfolio a few times a year and making some simple transactions can reduce your tax bill. Most investors don't do this and leave dollars on the table.

Harvesting investment losses means selling investments that have paper losses to lock in the losses. Deduct these against capital gains (including mutual fund distributions). If your losses exceed capital gains for the year, up to $3,000 of additional losses can be deducted against other income. Any leftover losses after that are carried forward to future years.

Harvesting losses doesn't mean keeping the investment out of your portfolio forever. If you still like the investment, you can buy it back. With stocks, mutual funds, and some other securities you have to wait more than 30 days to repurchase if you want to deduct the loss in the year of the sale. Or you can buy right away investments that aren't substantially identical. For example, sell one mutual fund and buy another at a different mutual fund family that has the same strategy.

Consider taxes before selling investments with gains. You save significant tax dollars by holding the investment for more than one year so the gain qual! ifies as ! long-term with a maximum tax rate of 20%. Sell a day early and it will be a short-term gain taxed at your ordinary income tax rate.

Even when a gain will be long-term, consider the full picture before selling. A long-term capital gain increases your adjusted gross income. It might be enough to trigger higher taxes on Social Security benefits, higher Medicare premiums, reduction of itemized deductions, and other tax penalties. That's why I say to consider the full picture before deciding to take a capital gain. Understand the full tax cost.

In other words, don't trade your investments too much. This is one area in which good tax strategies and investment strategies complement each other. One of the most frequent investment mistakes is trading too much, through either impatience or trying to time the market. A common tax mistake also is to trade too much, racking up taxable gains and missing the advantage of long-term gains.

Look for tax-advantaged investments. We already discussed tax-exempt bonds. You also should consider master limited partnerships. These pay high distributions. In the first 10 or so years you own them, about 85% of the distributions are tax-free. But the tax-free distributions reduce your tax basis, increasing taxes in the future. MLPs also make your tax returns more complicated, and some people avoid them for that reason. But they're worth considering.

Rental or investment real estate also is worth a look. This is more of a business than investment, because work is involved, and some of it is at inconvenient times. But it has tax advantages that make the efforts worthwhile for some people. You have to meet various requirements, such as being actively involved in management of the real estate, to reap all the benefits. Be sure you know the rules.

Manage retirement plan distributions. Distributions from IRAs and 401(k)s are taxed as ordinary income. Limit withdrawals from retirement plans and annuities to only the amounts needed for spending and! required! by law or contract. 

Take business loss deductions. Losses from businesses also reduce AGI. Losses can come from a sole proprietorship, partnership, limited liability company, or subchapter S corporation. You might be able to turn a hobby into a business. You have to run the activity like a real business, not a hobby, to meet the IRS’s rules for deducting losses.

Deductions for AGI. There are some deductions you can take on the front page of the 1040 that reduce AGI. They aren't practical for many people age 55 and over, especially those already retired. The deductions include health savings account contributions, moving expenses, the deductible part of self-employment taxes, self-employed health insurance premiums, and some self-employed retirement plan contributions. There are a few others that don't involve much planning, such as alimony payments.

By all means, maximize these deductions to the extent you can. But they don't offer significant planning opportunities for most of those who are in or near retirement.

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Thursday, February 20, 2014

Hewlett-Packard Company Beats EPS and Revenues; Guides Lighter (HPQ)

After the closing bell rang today, Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ) released Q1 2014 earnings where it detailed a solid quarter for the company.

HPQ Earnings in Brief

The company hauled in EPS of $0.90, a full 6 cents above analyst expectations of $0.84. Revenues also came in better than expected at $28.2 billion; the Street expected to see revenues at $27.19 billion. Cash flow from operations was a healthy $3 billion, up 17% from the same period one year ago. The company returned a total of $843 million to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

CEO Commentary

Meg Whitman, President and CEO of Hewlett-Packard, had this to say about the recent quarter: “HP is in a stronger position today than we’ve been in quite some time. The progress we’re making is reflected in growth across several parts of our portfolio, the growing strength of our balance sheet, and the strong support we’re receiving from customers and channel partners. Innovation is igniting our comeback, and at a time when many of our competitors are confronting new challenges, two years of turnaround work is setting us up for an exciting future.”

HPQ’s Dividend

No mention was made of a dividend increase, though the company has raised its payout for three consecutive years. The stock will go ex-dividend on 3/10/2014 and will pay out that dividend on 4/2/2014.

Stock Performance

HPQ initially jumped 0.6% on the earnings news, but as lackluster guidance hit the street, things quickly headed southas the stock was down as much as 0.7%.

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Can Christie dig out of Christie-sized jam?

There is an aura of inevitability about the Chris Christie crisis.

That's because the New Jersey governor's overarching strength is located perilously close to his Achilles heel.

Christie's appeal stems from the fact that he is forceful, direct, blunt — and visceral. He comes across as authentic. He says what he thinks and feels, and doesn't worry whether it's politically correct or if it hurts somebody's feelings. And when he wants something, better stay out of his way.

In an era when so many politicians seem paralyzed by fear of offending their base, when so many responses are so predictable, when talking points and staying on message are the coin of the realm, there's something refreshing about someone who has a little loose cannon in his arsenal.

Rem Rieder is a media columnist for USA TODAY.(Photo: USA TODAY)

The ultimate good Christie was on display in the wake of Superstorm Sandy. The governor, whose love of the Jersey Shore in general, and Seaside Heights in particular, is real and deep, was more than willing to embrace President Obama — optics be damned — when the president moved quickly to help the shore.

But the bad Christie has never been far from the surface. There's a fine line between tough and too tough. And for certain personality types, it can be awfully hard to negotiate.

It's one thing to tell sun worshipers to "get the hell off the beach" when Hurricane Irene is bearing down on Asbury Park. That's intelligent, if unvarnished, leadership.

But the flip side has frequently made its presence felt. Christie pursuing someone on the Seaside Heights boardwalk bellowing, "You're a real big shot. You're a real big shot. Just keep walking away." Christie telling a former Navy Seal, "Your rear end's going to be thrown in! jail, idiot." Christie asking a reporter, "Are you stupid?", later adding, "I'm sorry for the idiot over there."

Who even acts like that?

Last week, Christie found himself engulfed in a scandal about a traffic disaster in Fort Lee pettily triggered by his people about a perceived political slight. At a marathon press conference, he declared, with echoes of that classic Richard Nixon moment, "I am not a bully." But all-seeing YouTube suggests otherwise.

Christie insists he knew nothing about his aides' decision to shut down lanes of the George Washington Bridge in apparent retaliation for the Democratic mayor of Fort Lee's refusal to endorse him in his re-election contest last year. Never mind that Christie is a Republican.

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When a situation he made light of closer to the event exploded into a high-profile scandal that has put his political future in jeopardy, the governor was quick to throw two top aides under the bus.

But as The New York Times detailed in December, Christie has quite a history of exacting revenge on those who cross him.

So it would hardly comes as a surprise if it turns out Christie had a hand in the traffic snafu that inconvenienced so many. But it almost doesn't matter. Clearly, the top aide (now ex-aide) who thought it was "time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee" wasn't operating in a vacuum, but rather in a culture in which harsh retribution is par for the course.

Christie confronted the potentially disastrous situation head-on last Thursday. But he's hardly out of the woods. In politics, image is all. Christie's two-fisted Jersey Guy persona has served him well, winning him a second term as governor in a landslide and vaulting to the top of 2016 Republican presidential possibilities.

But images can morph, and if the notion that Christie is a vengeful brute sets in, that's a serious branding pro! blem.

!

You also have to wonder how the notoriously thin-skinned Christie would fare under the bright lights and merciless scrutiny of a presidential campaign, where every misstep can rapidly become the cable- and Internet-fueled flaplet du jour.

Meanwhile, the Bridge Too Narrow is not going away any time soon. A committee of the New Jersey Assembly is going to investigate. If it comes out that Christie knew more than he's saying, that's huge, given his unequivocal denials. Already, half of the residents of New Jersey don't believe him, according to a new poll.

While it's clearly too soon to count out the combative governor, one thing is true: He faces a Chris Christie-size problem.

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Cisco Earnings Don't Tell the Whole Story

A slight earnings beat apparently wasn't good enough for Wall Street, which nudged Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) stock down more than 4% in after-hours trading.

Even an increase in the quarterly dividend by $0.02 a share, to $0.19, wasn't enough to deter the bears. Cisco's yield will rise to about 3.3%.

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The maker of networking gear announced results after the market closed Wednesday and said it earned $0.47 cents a share in its fiscal second quarter, just barely beating expectations for $0.46 cents a share.

Revenue was $11.2 billion, also slightly higher than the $11.04 billion that analysts had forecast.

Investors were disappointed despite the beat because both numbers represent declines from the year-ago numbers.

Still, it would be a mistake to underestimate the veteran tech giant. Cisco is very much a company in transition right now, with an eye toward the future.

"We delivered the results we expected this quarter," chairman and Chief Executive Officer John Chambers said. "I'm pleased with the progress we've made managing through the technology transitions of cloud, mobile, security and video. Our financials are strong and our strategy is solid. The major market transitions are networking centric and as the Internet of Everything becomes more important to business, cities and countries, Cisco is uniquely positioned to help our customers solve their biggest business problems."

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Granted, Cisco faces some serious challenges right now.

In addition to weakness in emerging markets, which the company acknowledged last year, rivals Juniper Networks Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) and F5 Networks, Inc. (Nasdaq: FFIV) have been nibbling at Cisco's market share.

What's more, Cisco faces an even bigger threat on the horizon: software-defined networks (SDNs) that offer a cheaper alternative to the hardware-based networking equipment that is Cisco's bread-and-butter.

Finally, Cisco is still trying to fight its way out of "laggard" status. The world's most valuable company by market capitalization in the late 1990s, Cisco stock went flat after the dot-com bubble burst and has been searching in vain for growth ever since.

And yet, with all those headwinds, Cisco stock hasn't reacted as one would expect...

Why Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) Stock Hasn't Collapsed - But Will Go Higher

Over the past month, Cisco stock is up 2.58%, closing at $22.85 Wednesday. And over the past year, Cisco stock is up 8.7% (although down somewhat from its 52-week high of $26.49).

If Cisco's business is in such trouble, why hasn't the stock collapsed?

Note: For all the potential in tech, two sectors stand out as the best bets to generate triple and quadruple-digit gains. These sectors are just hitting their stride...

Chambers touched upon the answer in his comments. It's true that Cisco's traditional business is under pressure. But company management realizes what's happening and is moving toward taking advantage of the new opportunities created by the changes in the tech landscape.

Over the past year, Cisco has made several key acquisitions to allow it to move into such areas as the cloud (Meraki), SDNs (Cariden), and cybersecurity (Sourcefire), which not only offer growth but higher margins than its traditional business of networking hardware.

The combination of these acquisitions and the slow erosion of Cisco's old business have taken a toll on the company's profits, as we can see in today's earnings, and may see for the next couple of quarters.

Nevertheless, it's a promising strategy, even if it takes a year or two to pay off. At least Cisco management realized that sitting still was a death sentence and has taken aggressive action.

With Cisco stock under pressure in the short term, investors should consider this a buying opportunity.

With a P/E of just 12.4, and a forward P/E of just under 11, Cisco stock is already in bargain territory.

Once the company's strategy kicks in, the higher margins and better cash flow will start to be reflected in the earnings. And that will start nudging Cisco stock higher.

"The financial model remains strong, and the new products could add upside," Brian Marshall at ISI Group recently told Barron's. "At this price, the stock has more upside potential than downside."

Can #Cisco make a comeback, or is it "dead money"? Voice your opinion on Twitter @moneymorning or Facebook.

With e-commerce booming in China, investors are eyeing a planned IPO for Alibaba, the Chinese version of Amazon.com, which is expected later this year. But there's actually a much more profitable way to tap into this trend before the Alibaba IPO...

Related Links:

Barron's:
Cisco Battles Back Marketwatch:
Will Cisco Spook Wall Street again? The Street:
Cisco Remains a Buy Ahead of Earnings

Saturday, February 15, 2014

3 Ways to Get Rich off Citigroup

Less than six years ago, Citigroup (NYSE: C  ) took a $45 billion bailout as the government worked to prop up the unstable financial giant. In stark contrast, today's Citigroup is in turnaround mode as it's once again reporting billions in annual earnings. But here are ways beyond its common stock to invest in Citigroup, which is right for you? Well, it really depends on what type of investor you are.

Value investors
These investors are naturally attracted to Citigroup's common stock. Trading below book value, this bank already checks off one box on the value investor checklist. Making the value even better, Citigroup is also the only one of the four major U.S. banks to trade below tangible book value.

Normally, a company with these valuations would have to be losing money or have serious solvency concerns, but Citigroup has neither. Earnings are positive and continue to grow -- in fact, the bank trades at a single-digit forward price to earnings ratio. Citigroup is also adequately capitalized reporting a 10.5% Basel III Tier 1 capital ratio for the end of 2013 -- a level on par with more highly valued peers.

With Citigroup common stock trading at its current multiples, value investors don't have to look far for their ideal Citigroup investment.

Speculators
Unlike value investors, speculative investors are looking for bigger returns, even if they mean more risk. Fortunately, Citigroup offers a wide array of ways to bet on its success.

Aside from the common stock, Citigroup also has two classes of publicly traded warrants. Issued during the TARP bailouts, these warrants were originally given to the government to allow taxpayers to see some of the upside in Citigroup common stock. But as the government moved to exit its Citigroup position, both classes of warrants were listed on to the NYSE.

Both classes are well out-of-the-money today, but offer impressive amounts of leverage for long-term speculators. Citigroup Class A Warrants (NYSE: C-AW  ) have a strike price of $106.10 and expire Jan. 4, 2019 and Citigroup Class B Warrants (NYSE: C-BW  ) have a strike price of $178.50 and expire Oct. 28, 2018. Investors should also bear in mind these warrants are for 1/10 of a share each due to Citigroup's 1-for-10 reverse stock split.

Both warrants require Citigroup to more than double from today's price. If banks can return to historical valuations, the Class A warrants have a decent chance of being in-the-money by expiration. The Class B warrants are even further out-of-the-money, making them extremely speculative and have a large chance of expiring worthless.

Income investors
Bank stocks have traditionally been income investments, but the past several years have dealt heavy blows to bank dividends. With Citigroup common stock yielding less than a tenth of a percent annually, income investors should take a look at the preferred stock instead.

Citigroup, like many other large banks, has a large number of preferred stock series to pick from. One example carrying a good yield and some potential upside is Citigroup Series C Preferred Stock (NYSE: C-C). Trading at $21.58, this preferred yields 6.7% providing some upside in the event of a call but also a yield greater than most other income investments in big banks.

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Investors should note that this series, and many others from Citigroup, are non-cumulative meaning that if the bank misses a payment, it's not obligated to make it up. However, this would really be a last resort action for Citigroup as it would require eliminating the dividend on the common stock while simultaneously raising a big red flag for investors. Citigroup can also call Series C but can only do so for $25 on or after April 22, 2018. With current discount to the $25 liquidation value, a call would mean additional gains from today's price.

Investing in Citigroup
Citigroup got hit hard during the meltdown, but has fought most of the way back. Value, speculative, and income investors can all find a way to invest in this bank by choosing the right security.

With shares trading below tangible book value, a rare opportunity in publicly traded warrants, and yields higher than most rivals, making an investment in Citigroup could be a great long-term investment.

One bank that could disrupt Citigroup's plans
Do you hate your bank? If you're like most Americans, chances are good that you answered yes to that question. While that's not great news for consumers, it certainly creates opportunity for savvy investors. That's because there's a brand-new company that's revolutionizing banking, and is poised to kill the hated traditional brick-and-mortar banking model. And amazingly, despite its rapid growth, this company is still flying under the radar of Wall Street. For the name and details on this company, click here to access our new special free report.

Friday, February 14, 2014

J.M. Smucker Company Misses Q3 Estimates; Cuts Outlook; Shares Fall (SJM)

Shares of The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) fell over 5% on Friday morning after the company missed estimates and lowered its outlook for 2014.

SJM’s Earnings in Brief

SJM posted third quarter earnings of $166.7 million or $1.59 per share, up from $154.2 million, or $1.42 per share a year, ago. Excluding special items related to special projects, earnings were $1.66 per share, missing analysts’ view of $1.68 per share. Revenue dipped to 1.47 billion from $1.56 billion last year. Analysts expected to see revenue of $1.53 billion. Looking forward, SJM has cut its outlook for 2014 from an earnings estimate between $5.72 and $5.82 to a new range of $5.55 to $5.60. The company’s updated guidance falls well below analysts estimates of $5.78 per share.

CEO Commentary

CEO of SJM, Richard Smucker commented: “While we expect our fourth quarter earnings to be down compared to a strong quarter last year, we want to reiterate that our business fundamentals remain sound and our prospects for ongoing earnings growth continue.”

SJM’s Dividend

SJM declared its last 58 cent quarterly dividend on January 24. The dividend will be paid on March 3 to shareholders of record on February 14.

Stock Performance 

J.M. Smucker shares were down $5.19, or 5.46%, during pre-market trading Friday. The stock is down 8% YTD.

Sunday, February 9, 2014

CEO in cuffs? 2014 Wall Street crime predictions

"You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out," wrote Warren Buffett. He was talking about the recession in 2002, but it also describes the lives of prosecutors and regulators following the financial meltdown in 2008. Now that markets and the economy are rebounding and the tide is rising, will the white-collar watchdogs get a rest in 2014?

Don't bet on it.

Cybercrime, corruption and mortgage fraud are still alive and kicking. And the new year will bring new frontiers. Here are four predictions from the corporate crime beat for 2014.

New sheriff in town

After five years marked by a variety of controversies, look for Attorney General Eric Holder to step down soon. Holder has had some notable successes in white-collar enforcement, but in that realm he may be best remembered for Senate testimony last March — which he says was taken out of context — that some banks have become too big to prosecute.

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Manhattan U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara has been mentioned as a possible replacement, but don't bet on it. No question he has the chops, and those who know him say he is ambitious. But he doesn't need to burnish his law-enforcement credentials, nor does he need the headaches (and controversy) that come with the top job.

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The new top cop could come from the world of politics: Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar are among the possibilities.

CEOs walk free

This is becoming a perennial prediction, but no, we will not see a Wall Street CEO in handcuffs in 2014. Here, I am at odds with my colleague Jeff Cox, who predicts "someone huge goes down" in 2014. Here's why he is wrong and I am right.

While no prosecutor worth his or her salt—including Eric Holde! r and Preet Bharara—wouldn't give their right arm to land a really big fish, and while the statute of limitations on some frauds relating to the 2008 financial crisis has at least another year to run, these cases are incredibly difficult to make. They require proving beyond a reasonable doubt that the executive deliberately fudged information with the intent to commit a crime. They also require lower-level operatives to plead guilty and testify against the boss. So far, that has not happened.

That is not to say criminal prosecutors won't be busy in 2014. The insider-trading probe is not over, and JPMorgan—despite a record $13 billion settlement—is not out of the woods. The Justice Department gets some new energy with a new attorney general—whoever it turns out to be—as well as a new head of the criminal division, Leslie Caldwell, likely to be confirmed by the Senate early in the year. The first director of the Justice Department's Enron Task Force, from 2002 to 2004, Caldwell knows a thing or two about bringing big cases amid public outrage. She also knows a thing or two about only bringing cases she has a good chance of winning.

Public officials in the crosshairs

How about a juicy Washington scandal? Or insert your city or your state capital here.

The time is right, and the ingredients are there: lots of taxpayer money sloshing around in a variety of government programs, public pension systems in shambles, and an increasing focus by prosecutors on public corruption. The FBI calls it "our top priority among criminal investigations," and some states, most notably New York, have created blue ribbon commissions to look into the problem.

Maybe it's a crooked contractor in cahoots with a politician on the take. Maybe it's a public pension fund cooking the books. Kickbacks. Overbilling. Influence-peddling. Conflicts of interest. Campaign finance fraud. Look for criminal charges against a well-known public official, present or former, in 2014.

Not-so-hot commoditie! s

T! he tide may be rising in the equity markets, but not so much in the commodity markets. Will we find out in 2014 who has been swimming naked in oil? (Yuck!) Gold? Currencies? The next big financial scandal could come in commodities.

A look back at 2013

Not only was I right about no Wall Street CEOs in handcuffs in 2013, I correctly predicted tougher enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. The SEC collected more than $700 million in penalties related to the antibribery law in 2013, a 400 percent increase over 2012. I predicted a big cyber bust in 2013. Among the many: Bharara's move in September to shut down the shadowy "Silk Road" website, which prosecutors say was a conduit for money laundering. I predicted more action on insider trading, and SAC Capital pleaded guilty to criminal charges. I said the Libor interest rate-rigging scandal would heat up again, and sure enough, it did.

Follow Cohn on Twitter @ScottCohnCNBC.

© CNBC is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news and commentary. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Pandora poised to rock the Street

SAN FRANCISCO -- Pandora may be music to investors ears today.

Oakland, Calif.-based Pandora, scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell, has Wall Street watching its fourth-quarter advertising prospects.

The leading streaming music service has quickly accelerated its market position of total U.S. radio listening hours to nearly 8% but only garners 2.5% of radio advertising dollars, says RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Mahaney.

"The build-out of Pandora's local sales force as well as its recent integration into leading radio ad-buying platforms should help to accelerate this monetization effort," wrote Mahaney in a report.

Pandora last month launched an in-car advertising platform with the likes of Ford, BP and Taco Bell signed on. The deal gives advertisers access to 15- and 30-second audio spots.

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"Our proprietary sampling of Pandora Radio listening hours in January points to a modest increase in advertising load both for audio and display," wrote Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Graham in a report.

The analyst has a "buy" recommendation with a $43 price target.

The streaming service has 76.2 million active monthly listeners. Competition, however, is constantly on the rise. Apple in September launched its iTunes Radio, which grabbed 20 million listeners by October.

Pandora is expected to report net income $15.8 million on $201.08 million in revenue in the quarter, according to the survey of estimates from Thomson Reuters.

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Q4 Earnings Preview: Will Amazon's EPS Top Street?

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) will release its fourth quarter financial results on Jan.30. The company will hold a conference call to discuss the operating performance at 2:00 p.m. PT/5:00 p.m. ET on the same day.

Wall Street expects Amazon to report earnings of 66 cents a share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. The consensus estimate implies more than three fold increase from the 21 cents earned last year.

Amazon's results have managed to top Street view only once in the past four quarters while missing them by a wide margin on two occasions and meeting it in the third quarter. The consensus estimate dropped 3 cents in the last three months while two analysts have raised their profit view for the quarter in the past 30 days.

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Quarterly revenue is expected to rise 22.60 percent to $26.07 billion from $21.27 billion in the same quarter last year. Amazon sees fourth quarter net sales between $23.5 billion and $26.5 billion, or to grow between 10 and 25 percent from the fourth quarter 2012. The market look at the contributions of North America and International markets.

For the full year, Amazon is expected to earn 73 cents a share on revenue of $74.94 billion. Last year, the online, retail giant reported a loss of 9 cents a share and generated revenue of $61.09 billion.

Amazon's fourth quarter results could be boosted heavily by a strong sales during the holiday season, driven by Kindle shipments and video game sales. This year, there is a difference in Kindle shipping timing, with both the new 7" and 8.9" versions pushed into the fourth quarter this year. This effectively shifts the recognition of new Kindle Fire HDX sales fully into the fourth quarter.

[Related -Level Watching and Swing Trade Planning for Amazon (AMZN)]

UBS analyst Eric Sheridan notes that the updated version of the Kindle Paperwhite eReader sales will benefit from last year's stock-out issues that delayed a portion of shipments into the first quarter 2013.

In addition, high levels of Amazon promotional support and encouraging data points as supportive of strong Kindle Fire HDX sales in the fourth quarter.

As expected, video game console and game sales also appeared to be  winners over the holiday shopping season, and were specifically called out as Black Friday top sellers at Walmart (by the company) and Target (by InfoScout).

Sheridan believes that video game related sales make up anywhere from 10 to 15 percent of Amazon's Media segment and this segment represents about one third of total company sales.

The quarter also saw an uptick in Amazon prime membership. Amazon reported the addition of greater than one million new Prime members during the third week of December alone, noting that total Prime member is now in the "tens of millions". For context, Amazon had approximately 234 million active customers as of the end of the third quarter 2013.

Amazon Prime membership sign up were coming in at such a rapid pace that the company actually had to limit customer sign-ups during peak periods.

Sheridan said a likely contributor to the increase in new members was Amazon's recent (October 2013) free shipping threshold change – increasing the minimum qualifying order value from $25 to $35.

Amazon noted that on Cyber Monday, the peak day for the 2013 holiday season, the company received more than 36.8 million customer orders. This represents a 39 percent increase over last year's peak day (26.5 million units on Cyber Monday, 2012).

Meanwhile, increased fee revenues from 3P sellers should be supportive of gross margin expansion. Investors would be looking for paid unit growth trends, which is a key metric given Amazon's increasing 3P mix and its impact on both reported revenue growth and gross profit margins.

Sheridan noted that the fourth quarter 2013 may have seen a greater mix of 3P units given outside sellers could promote on holiday pages for the first time this year. To that point, the company noted that Cyber Monday 3P units were up 50 percent in 2013. This implies an increase of close to 300bps in 3P mix on Cyber Monday.

The Street will expect updates on international Kindle e-book developments, macro recovery in key European markets and traction in its Amazon Web Services business. They may also focus on any comments over recent rumors of additional hardware launches, such as Kindle smartphone and video game consoles.

Amazon is giving a stiff competition to Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) on the content front. Prime Instant Video selection increased from 33,000 to more than 40,000 movies and TV episodes in 2013. Amazon Instant Video now includes more than 150,000 movies and TV episodes.

A few additional items that may be brought up on the call or mentioned in some form include early progress related to the company's global expansion of the Kindle Appstore; early traction with 3P sellers in India; update around China strategy (Kindle, partnerships); and the potential pace of Amazon Fresh market expansion, including the recently announced Pantry initiative.

Amazon is sacrificing near-term profitability to drive long-term growth as it is investing heavily in Kindle tablets, TV content, Video library and AWS. These heavy investments are weighing on gross margins resulting in losses. Amazon expects third-quarter operating results between a loss of $500 million and a profit of $500 million, compared to $405 million a year-ago.

For the third quarter, the Seattle, Washington-based company reported a net loss of $41 million, or 9 cents a share, compared with a net loss of $274 million, or 60 cents a share, in the third quarter 2012. Net sales increased 24 percent to $17.09 billion in the third quarter.

Amazon has traded in a mixed manner following its last two fourth quarter earnings announcements, increasing 5 percent and decreasing 8 percent, respectively. That said, over a five year span, the average price change post fourth quarter results is a 1.4 percent gain.

Shares of AMZN have gained 19 percent since the last quarterly report and have climbed 52 percent in the last year. They have traded between $245.75 and $408.06 during the past 52-weeks.

Sunday, February 2, 2014

Early Report on Black Friday Online Sales: Up 7%

At noon ET on Black Friday, online sales are up 7% compared with the same period a year ago and the average order value this year is $142.33. The data is collected and reported by the Digital Analytics Benchmark group at International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM).

Other data points of interest from IBM's cloud-based digital analytics platform:

Mobile traffic accounted for 37% of all online traffic, up more than third from a year ago Mobile sales accounted for 21.5% of all online sales Smartphones drove 24.4% of online traffic, nearly double the traffic from tablets Tablet traffic drove 1.5x more sales than smartphone traffic Average sale per tablet user was $137.96, compared with $119.21 per smartphone user Sales to users of iPhones from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) totaled 17.5%, more than 4x the sales for users of Google Inc.'s (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android operating system iPhone users posted an average sale per user of $131.52 compared with $113.13 for Android users Shoppers referred by Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) averaged $93.73 per order and shoppers referred from Pinterest averaged $103.30 per order Facebook referrals converted to sales at more than twice the rate of Pinterest referrals

One final note. Earlier this morning we looked at shopping versus NFL football to see which was the real American sport. The numbers are finally in for last night's Steelers/Ravens game. More than 18.6 million viewers watched the prime-time broadcast of the game, but that number is probably far less than went shopping.